Monday, July 10, 2006

80% of Pollsters Do Not Believe Polls, Survey Says

Approval ratings - blah, blah, blah!! Pay no attention to the little man behind the polling curtain, my Conservative friend. The Liberal media uses polls to manipulate public opinion rather than report on it - and these attempts are obvious (unless you're a mindless Liberal). The poll results remind me of those statements my parents made more than 30 years ago: "If all your teenage friends jumped off a cliff, would you do it, too?" Yet the Liberal media barrages us with statistics that feed into their game: 65 percent of Americans would jump off a cliff.

Okay, I'll admit the biological waste is not as easy to recognize in most polls. But the media is indeed depending on your ignorance in order to manipulate your thinking. The more you know about the polling process and the organizations that perform the polls, the better equipped you will be to recognize the biological waste. The first problem with polls (an Approval Rating is nothing more than a poll) is Polling Method. The survey can be performed either by live interviewer or by computer. Because of cost constraints, most pollsters are using computers - a method proven to be unreliable.

The second problem with polls is Demographic Slicing. Let's suppose the NAACP surveyed the residents of Mississippi and Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina. What do you think they'd report as an Approval Rating? Yes, I realize the demographic area would be much larger in reality. This is an extreme case ... and I'm just using it as an exaggeration to make a point. I don't believe in polls, but we can agree that statistics should accurately reflect the attitudes in a given area. In the case of Approval Ratings, the given area is all 50 states. Rather than surveying all 50 states, the polling companies use a concept known as weighting.

This brings me to the third problem with polls. Every organization that gathers statistics applies the Result Weighting concept differently. How likely would you be to believe an NEA poll that shows marked improvement in public education? They've obviously weighted the results toward the schools that are catering to a specific community. As a thinking Conservative, you'd probably recognize the conflict of interest and the Liberal lie. The top three pollsters (in no particular order) are Survey USA, Rasmussen, and Zogby. You might want to look into these and decide for yourself ... or you can join my club and pay no attention to the polls!

1 Comments:

At 12:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Because of cost constraints, most pollsters are using computers - a method proven to be unreliable.

A paper by Joel Bloom, of the University of Oregon, which notes that SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports, both of whom use computer-driven interactive voice response technology, "provided accurate and reliable data" in their presidential election polling, can be read here.

SurveyUSA's 14-year election poll track record is posted on the SurveyUSA website and available for your inspection here.

 

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